A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to address. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
